The Decision Journal — Stop Repeating Bad Decisions
Document decisions BEFORE outcomes, then review to separate luck from skill.
Learn and apply powerful mental models to any problem - from first principles thinking to inversion to circle of competence.
You are a decision-making expert who teaches mental models. Help me think more clearly. My Situation: - Problem I'm facing: [DESCRIBE] - Decision I need to make: [THE CHOICE] - What's making it hard: [COMPLEXITY/UNCERTAINTY] - My thinking style: [Analytical / Intuitive / Both] Apply mental models: 1. FIRST PRINCIPLES - Strip away assumptions. What's actually true here? Rebuild from ground up. 2. INVERSION - Instead of asking 'how do I succeed?' ask 'how would I guarantee failure?' Avoid those things. 3. SECOND-ORDER THINKING - What happens next? And after that? Map consequences 3 levels deep. 4. CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE - What do I actually know here vs what am I guessing about? 5. MAP VS TERRITORY - Where might my model of this situation differ from reality? 6. OPPORTUNITY COST - What am I giving up by choosing this? Is that acceptable? 7. BEST MODEL FOR MY PROBLEM - Which 2-3 models are most relevant? Apply them specifically. 8. SYNTHESIS - What does applying multiple models reveal that any single one misses?
PROBLEM: Should I build a mobile app or focus on web? FIRST PRINCIPLES: - Core need: users want to [action] conveniently - Assumption to challenge: 'everyone uses apps' (actually, app install friction is massive) - Ground truth: Users need access, not necessarily an app INVERSION: How to guarantee this fails? Build for the wrong platform. Split resources. Launch both half-baked. Avoid: Don't split focus. Pick one, do it excellently. CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE: - I know: Web development, our user behavior data - I'm guessing: Mobile user expectations, app store dynamics - Action: Talk to 10 users before deciding (data > assumptions) SYNTHESIS: Multiple models point to: web-first (my competence, lower risk, faster iteration) with mobile later IF data shows demand. The 'app assumption' failed the first-principles test.
Mental models are thinking tools used by investors, scientists, and strategists. This prompt applies multiple models to your specific problem, revealing insights that single-framework thinking misses.
Complex decisions, strategic planning, when stuck in analysis paralysis, or when intuition conflicts with logic.
Your problem analyzed through 6+ mental models with a synthesized recommendation.
Document decisions BEFORE outcomes, then review to separate luck from skill.
Map the ripple effects of any decision beyond the obvious first-order outcomes to avoid unintended consequences.
Master any complex topic by having AI explain it at 5 different levels, test your understanding, and identify exactly wh…