Run a Pre-Mortem Before Your Plan Fails

I want to run a pre-mortem on [PROJECT/PLAN/DECISION].

The plan:
- What we're doing: [DESCRIBE]
- Timeline: [WHEN]
- Success looks like: [DEFINE SUCCESS]
- Team/resources: [WHO IS INVOLVED]
- Current confidence level: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]

Imagine it is [TIMELINE END DATE]. The project has FAILED. It's a disaster.

Now work backward:

1. FAILURE SCENARIOS (generate 8-10)
   For each, write a realistic "news headline" of what went wrong.
   Group by category:
   - Execution failures (team, process, quality)
   - Strategic failures (wrong market, wrong timing, wrong approach)
   - External failures (competition, regulation, economy)
   - People failures (turnover, conflict, misalignment)
   - Unknown unknowns (what we didn't even consider)

2. ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
   For the top 5 most likely failure modes:
   - What sequence of events leads to this failure?
   - When does the first crack appear? (earliest warning sign)
   - Who notices first? (and do they have the power to act?)
   - Why didn't we prevent it? (what made us blind to it?)

3. PREVENTION PLAYBOOK
   For each top failure mode:
   - One action to take THIS WEEK to reduce the risk
   - One metric to monitor that would catch it early
   - One person who should own this risk
   - The decision trigger: "If [X happens], we will [Y]"

4. KILL CRITERIA
   Define 3 clear conditions under which you should STOP the project entirely:
   - What data would prove this is not working?
   - At what point is it braver to quit than continue?
   - Who has the authority to call it?

5. CONFIDENCE UPDATE
   After this pre-mortem:
   - Has your confidence level changed?
   - What's the ONE thing that could prevent 80% of failures?
   - Should you proceed, adjust, or abandon?